As of January 2026, Pete Buttigieg has emerged as a top-tier contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination, often leading or placing in a dead heat in the most critical early battlegrounds.
His standing is bolstered by high favorability ratings and the residual organizational strength from his 2020 run.
Here is a breakdown of the current Democratic field, with Buttigieg at the forefront:
Buttigieg is currently the frontrunner in New Hampshire, where a late 2025 St. Anselm College poll placed him at 28%, ahead of all other potential rivals.
His decision in early 2025 to bypass a Senate run in Michigan was widely interpreted as a move to keep his 2028 options open. He maintains a massive +75 net favorability among primary voters, the highest in the party.
Gavin Newsom (Governor of California) is Buttigieg’s primary rival for the top spot. While he trails slightly in New Hampshire (24%), some national polls show him with a slight edge due to his aggressive “shadow campaigning” against the current administration’s policies. He is set to release a major memoir in February 2026.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (U.S. Representative, NY) holds a firm grip on the progressive wing, polling at 14% in New Hampshire. She is the clear favorite among self-described socialist and younger voters, and she has already begun framing the 2028 race as a choice between “corporate pragmatism” and “working-class populism.”
Kamala Harris (Former Vice President): Though her support has fluctuated since the 2024 election, she remains a formidable force with roughly 11% support in early states. She has spent early 2026 on a multi-state “listening tour” to promote her new book and reconnect with the party’s donor base.
Analysts point to three main factors for “Mayor Pete’s” early advantage:
The “Ground Game” Advantage: Unlike many newcomers, Buttigieg still has active volunteer networks in Iowa and New Hampshire from his previous campaign.
Communication Style: He remains the party’s most frequent media surrogate, often going into “hostile” media environments to defend Democratic values.
The “Clean Slate” Factor: As a former Cabinet member who moved to Michigan, he is seen as a bridge between the traditional party establishment and the Midwestern “Blue Wall” voters the party is desperate to reclaim.
